In this month’s As The Tri Polar World Turns, CIO Jay Pelosky walks through the pause that refreshes and introduces TPWIM’s 3 Steps for Risk Assets. He explores these issues through our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) Scoring System which focuses on the intersection between Economics, Politics, Policy, and Markets. This month’s piece builds on our earlier work on potential growth rates and neutral rates of interest, furthers our point of view on the importance of the consumer and details the three steps of Anticipation, Confirmation & Reallocation for global markets.
Read MoreTight, 3 min inflation debate video from Jay’s appearance on yesterdays' BloombergTV The Open with Jon Ferro.
Clip had Jay’s thoughts: slow growth & lack of inflation risk combined with low rate volatility suggests the search for yield can continue. Bullish for EM debt, US spread product, EU peripheral debt. Bottom line: a year ago risk assets were facing a Fed intent on tightening & a slowing China, today, risk assets can look to a Fed on hold and a stimulating China.
Read MoreJay was featured in an article regarding the surge in China equities YTD. As we have been discussing at TPW a China trade deal and China economic bottom are two of the three important factors needed to see a continued rally. This article goes into our view on both.
Read MoreJay was back on this morning’s BloombergTV Daybreak for over 40 minutes discussing many topics including trade & tariffs, the importance of the consumer, and why we think a global easing cycle is going to begin.
Below is a nice 2 min clip in which he lays out the view that we are on the cusp of a global easing cycle, made possible by the Fed going on hold and likely to be led by the CB’s of the emerging economies.
Read MoreIn this month’s As The Tri Polar World Turns, CIO Jay Pelosky notes the role of a Fed pause & better tone in US - China trade talks in stabilizing risk assets while highlighting the need for confirming bottoms in both economic growth and corporate earnings to drive prices higher. He explores these issues through our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) Scoring System which focuses on the intersection between Economics, Politics, Policy, and Markets.
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We are excited to be in Hollywood Florida next week (10th-13th) for the Inside ETF Annual Conference. Jay will be participating on a timely panel “How to Distinguish Between Value Play and Value Trap: Emerging Markets.” He has had a long career in global asset allocation including many years at Morgan Stanley specifically focused on EM. Jay initiated their Global Emerging Markets Strategy (GEMS) and Latin American equity research products. On the buy side he launched & served as PM for MS’s Brazil Fund and the NYSE listed Latin America Discovery Fund.
Read MoreJay is a frequent guest on Bloomberg TV including Daybreak and The Open. Yesterday Jay was on The Open with Jon Ferro for 40 + min where they discussed our Don’t Mess with LaGuardia Shutdown take, China-US trade tiff, Earnings (bad news in the price?) and Central Banks vs the Slowdown.
In the 2 min clip below Jay gives three factors that need to happen for risk assets to maintain their 2019 success.
Read MoreIn this month’s As The Tri Polar World Turns, CIO Jay Pelosky notes the role of a Fed pause & better tone in US - China trade talks in stabilizing risk assets while highlighting the need for confirming bottoms in both economic growth and corporate earnings to drive prices higher. He explores these issues through our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) Scoring System which focuses on the intersection between Economics, Politics, Policy, and Markets.
Read MoreCheck out the link below for Jay’s appearance from 11/26 on BTV The Open.
Read More2018 uncertainty has shown up in market volatility and, well, that uncertainty remains as our 2019 Outlook title suggests.
In our Outlook we leverage both TPWIM’s unique Tri Polar World (TPW) framework & our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) monitoring system to provide clarity on the issues likely to drive markets in 2019 as well as provide insight into our differentiated approach to the global, multi asset investment landscape.
Read MoreCheck out the link below for Jay’s appearance from 11/26 on BTV The Open.
Read MoreThe main question as we prepare to exit 2018 and enter 2019 is the following: Do the recent selloffs in global equity, tech, momentum, and oil point to a significant global growth slowdown or are they more a reflection of internal market driven dynamics?………..
Read MoreCheck out the link below for Jay’s appearance from 11/26 on BTV The Open.
Read MoreThe main macro theme of the past month was the return of global market volatility which facilitated a start to the Convergence of US, tech led equity markets (Nasdaq posted worst Oct since 08) with the rest of the world…. What comes next remains to be seen but we are unlikely to go back to the status quo ante.
Read MoreAre populism, central banking, and high tech fragmenting the world? Jay Pelosky, CIO & Co-Founder of TPW Investment Management (TPWIM) lays out his thesis of a world splintering into three divergent regions — The Americas, Europe, and Asia. Pelosky also unpacks what he believes to be the critical implications for investors including the 3Ts: Trade, Tech and Turbans (sanctions).
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We are excited to announce that Jay Pelosky, CIO, will be joining the 'Global Bonds vs. Local Bonds: Should Investors Worry About Home-Country Bias?' panel at Inside Fixed Income 2018!
Read MoreCheck out the link below for Jay’s appearance from 10/19 on BTV The Open.
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I was fortunate to be invited to Austin, TX in mid October to speak at UTIMCO, which oversees investments for The University of Texas and Texas A&M Systems (over $45b). Below are my talking points which lay out the Tri Polar World framework in the context of the 3Ts: Trade, Tech and Turbans (sanctions).
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The main macro theme this month is the growing sense that while headlines scream America First the shift from US Divergence (leadership) to Rest of the World (ROW) Convergence is underway. This is shaping up to be the main story of 2019….
Read MoreThree macro issues stand out as we exit Summer (here in the US) and prepare for Fall. As befitting the Tri Polar World, each region: The Americas, Europe, and Asia has one issue.
The first and arguably the most important is Fed chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech where he noted that he saw no signs of inflation overheating…
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