The main macro theme this month is the growing sense that while headlines scream America First the shift from US Divergence (leadership) to Rest of the World (ROW) Convergence is underway. This is shaping up to be the main story of 2019….
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Three macro issues stand out as we exit Summer (here in the US) and prepare for Fall. As befitting the Tri Polar World, each region: The Americas, Europe, and Asia has one issue.
The first and arguably the most important is Fed chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech where he noted that he saw no signs of inflation overheating…
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We are very excited to share this recent RealVision interview with Jay Pelosky, TPWIM’s CIO. Our 2H Outlooknoted that how the divergence between the US and Europe played out was one of the 3 key questions investors need to answer. TPWIM's Global Risk Nexus (GRN) Scoring System suggests 2H convergence between the US and Europe across: economics, politics, policy and markets.
Read MoreCheck out the link below for a 6 min clip from 8/15 BTV ETF IQ show. We talk Turkey, EM, EM Tech & EM local currency debt before finishing with US High Yield.
Read MoreWe continue to expect a challenging second half of the year as noted in our 2nd Half Outlook. We remain focused on discerning the answers to the three key questions for financial assets that we posed in the Outlook. Let’s update each one individually.
Read MoreThe 2nd half of the year is likely to remain challenging. From a secular point of view, trade and tech tensions reinforce our Tri Polar World (TPW) thesis of regional integration. Tactically, the Fed is in motion, oil prices are at multi year highs and the Three Ts (Trump, Trade & Tariffs) continue to generate that which markets hate most: uncertainty. Amidst the noise, three main questions stand out.
Read MoreWe are very excited to share this recent Bloomberg clip with Jay Pelosky, TPWIM’s CIO. Jay discusses our Tri Polar World framework as well as the outlook for Mexican equity in the aftermath of AMLO’s election.
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We are very excited to share this recent RealVision interview with Jay Pelosky, TPWIM’s CIO. Jay outlines why small caps have been core holdings in our flagship Global Macro Multi Asset (GMMA) portfolio, explaining how small caps globally (Europe & Japan) and US Small Caps in particular (IJR) provide both offense and defense in a 3T world (Trump, Trade & Tariffs).
Read MoreThe first quarter of the year had something for everyone; from January’s melt up to March’s meltdown the one constant was the return of volatility. A few weeks into Q2 and that volatility remains with us as financial markets gyrate to a new geo political tune on a daily basis.
Read MoreTri Polar World 2.0
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The Tri Polar World (TPW) framework developed by TPWIM provides a differentiated view of global economic development driven by regional integration in the three main regions of Asia, Europe and the Americas.
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Very excited to share this recent Real Vision interview clip examining how the Tri Polar World (TPW) thesis can be used throughout the global investment process from asset allocation to regional weightings, country selection, sector determination and stock level opportunity.
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