As the Tri Polar World Turns: Whiplash January 2021

SUMMARY: From US Govt Deconstruction to Govt Activism, from Covid speed of science to Covid speed disappoints, from bubble talk to (Game) stop… it's enough to give one whiplash!

HEALTH: Good news is cases and hospitalizations are rolling over in the US and Europe; bad news is vaccination process is too slow and variant risk is rising. Opportunity for Govts to win - challenge is the last mile, always the toughest. Citizens up in arms (no pun intended). Govts scramble to respond. Expect rapid US pick up & hope for the same in the EU. J&J news is a +.

ECONOMICS: Continue to expect a Global Economic BOOM. IMF blesses US fiscal stance with upgraded growth #s. Trade percolating in Asia, production side robust globally - it's all about the service sector and that means it's all about vaccinations. Supply issues manifesting from food to semiconductors…expect transitory inflation spike in months ahead.

POLITICS: Trump Admin objective: the deconstruction of the administrative state, is the logical culmination of 40 yr effort going back to Ronald Reagan. Biden Admin believers in and experts on Govt. Huge needs and cheap $ suggest activism is both good economics & good politics. Extremism risks tearing Republican party apart. Activist Govt means policy driven markets and thematic opportunity sets.

POLICY: Vaccinate and do it fast. Keep the stimulus coming - don't fear the taper. Focus on the working class - China and US alike. Cost of Trump isolation and treatment of allies and competitors alike: Europe seeks strategic autonomy, China, technological self sufficiency. Digital coins in both regions suggest possible threat to USD dominance over time.

MARKETS: GME a sideshow, Bubble talk stale as old beer with BTC off 40%, Clean energy off 15%, Metal miners off 10%, EV off 10-15%. Equity markets have worked off overbought conditions via time not price - suggest continued appreciation in months/quarters ahead. February a tough month seasonality wise. Focus on thematic for alpha in a less generous beta world. Buy the dips.

Remain OW Equity/Commodities vs Bonds; OW non US vs US, Cyclical/Value/SC vs Growth/Defensives/LC. UST in a bear market, Credit not V appealing either. Commodities in a bull market across segments. Death of the office dead wrong. Bitcoin pricing driven by institutional adoption - Blackrock allowing its Global Allocation Fund to invest in BTC futures is a competitive game changer.

Monday’s Tri Polar Webinar was a big hit - enjoy the replay here.

Thursday night’s 12 minute Bloomberg Radio interview was rocking - enjoy.