As The Tri Polar World Turns: Investing Thematically in the Tri Polar World
Summary: I integrate my Tri Polar World (TPW) framework & Global RIsk Nexus (GRN) process with thematic investing in order to answer a set of questions from a practitioners POV. For example, how can one leverage the TPW & GRN to capture the inherent advantages of global macro in the thematic space? Given the high beta nature of thematics how can one ensure proper sizing and positioning? What's the best way to integrate these themes into a global multi asset ETF based portfolio?
The TRI POLAR WORLD
The TPW is a proprietary thesis I have been developing for over a decade; today it serves as the framework for how I think about the globe and as a starting point for my investment process.
The linkages between the TPW’s original drivers: each region’s growing ability to self finance, self produce and self consume and thematics like fintech, robotics and ecommerce are clear. TPW’s new drivers: Tech & Climate dovetail with the thematic evolution both in theme and in regional integration.
The TPW framework provides a differentiated perspective on the interplay between regional deepening and investing thematically.
THE GLOBAL RISK NEXUS
Developed over the past five years, the GRN represents the level below the TPW in my investing process, assessing Economics, Politics, Policy and Markets in each region and globally. It has proven invaluable during the past year, especially in regards to ensuring the bandwidth to invest thematically.
Adding a Health component to the GRN’s original segments was the best investment decision I made in 2020 as it allowed me to develop the Covid speed concept. Speed has arguably been THE key component to being on the right side of the markets this past year.
The GRN and Covid speed was the key that unlocked the thematic door. The Covid speed of science model: global intellectual & financial capital focused on a single global issue with unprecedented results is a game changer.
Over the past few months, I have extended this model to other global challenges such as Climate, Cyber, Genomics, FIntech/Crypto. These global challenges coupled with abundant, cheap capital and the replicable success of the Covid speed model represent a paradigm shift that will drive unprecedented innovation.
Investing thematically via ETFs is the best way to access the opportunities that will flow from this Innovation period. Global macro investors should be the natural beneficiaries - themes are top down & reflect changes in economics, politics and policy - the building blocks of macro (and my GRN).
MSCI, with its own suite of Megatrends, outlines how thematic investing cuts across traditional country, sector & style classifications - creating alpha generating opportunities. Bloomberg notes how many thematic ETFs have small and micro cap companies that are not in ACWI or Euro Stoxx or the S&P - another alpha generating opportunity.
One needs new guides to access all these new opportunities - one can't expect to become an expert in Cyber, Life Sciences, Climate etc. Cathie Woods of ARK Inv Mgmt and Elon Musk are the Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett of today. In fact, MSCI worked with ARK to create its Innovation indices. ARK’s active management style provides an opportunity to leverage its intellectual capital.
With most thematics trading as high beta assets I have found it helps to pair both old and new sectors together: for example old financials with fintech or old energy with clean energy. This also allows one to benefit from the confluence of factors driving the Value rotation while enabling one to stay invested thematically.
One can also manage the various thematics, sizing the more aggressive, volatile ETFs such as EV and Battery alongside less volatile segments like Infrastructure & Carbon. I include a picture of the global multi asset model portfolio’s thematic sleeve.
Thematic ETFs are driving the innovation process within the ETF space, taking market share form MFs and ETFs tied to broad benchmark like styles. Given their premium pricing, I expect this to continue, including a US listed Bitcoin ETF in the not too distant future.
The questions for today are these: given expected strong growth and a further back up in rates towards a 2%10 yr. UST will the main thematics continue to trade as levered Nasdaq plays? On the other hand if the paradigm shift draws in LT capital then will volatility ebb, reinforcing the opportunity set? Something to ponder.
Investing thematically is here to stay and could even be the salvation for the global macro style of investing.
For my current market POV, click on this mid week video with Spain’s Negocios TV - apologize in advance for the lighting - will fix it!
For more on investing thematically and the various regime shifts occurring join me and my friends at GATE Advisory for a webinar on Thursday April 1st - no fooling! Sign up here .