What's Next
Happy Friday,
Speed remains the Covid-19 Age signature… speed that on some days can be dizzying - even for a grizzled vet like me. Having a process, a POV is key to staying upright & not succumbing to vertigo.
We noted last week that risk asset prices were extended - the Robinhood bros were making news and all seemed well - then boom, stocks sold off 4 days in a row, longest since mid-March, capped by yesterday's sell fest - Covid speed.
Our read? The pullback is a good thing - as new bull markets develop, signs of speculation, sharp up moves, followed by pullbacks are a sign of investors aligning their expectations of the future with current price levels. Today, machine led markets trade almost immediately to pain points as demonstrated by yesterday's fall right to SPY 3k support (back to levels seen 2 weeks ago) - like bad tasting medicine - it's healthy.
Buy the dips; 6% down days are good days to build positions in the Cyclical, Value, non US, Credit, Comm, spaces.
This week’s take home point? Today's non US mkt response is another tell - a tell that market leadership is moving away from the US to ROW… a one day, 6% pullback in US equity markets and Asia falls small and Europe trades up? No USD uptick? Hmmm.
The US chickens could be coming home to roost as lax decision marking around reopenings lead to case surges and more importantly sharp rises in hospitalizations in several states. The latter is likely to lead to some reimposed restrictions which will in turn, sharpen the distinction between the chaotic US response to Covid -19 & that of Germany or Japan for example.
Forward looking markets are focused on the reopening process & the policy support for such; the risk of renewed shutdowns are a principal market risk that increasingly appears to reside mainly in the US.
Treasury Sec. Mnuchin made it clear there will not be a national shutdown, even with a true 2nd wave (current situation is not that) so it's worth noting that the states showing worst case surges make up roughly 20% of the US economy. Reopenings will continue in much of the country as will fiscal support (Mnuchin’s other message). Thus the US is likely to lag not collapse again.
The longest US expansion (128 months) ended in February to be replaced by perhaps the shortest recession ever (Feb - May)... that is Covid speed. The last several recessions lasted close to a year. JPM expects US Q3 GDP to be up 30% annualized.
In the months ahead we expect a large scale return of workers & a demand recovery that strains an upended supply chain and creates a whiff of inflation. Inventories are V low across both wholesale & retail segments, a legacy of the US - China trade war. The surprise could be demand that is much stronger, much faster than expected. BofA reports that 1st week June credit card spending fell only 6% vs yr ago levels vs down 20%+ just 2 months ago.
Notwithstanding the UST rally of the past week or so, the direction is higher rates, back towards our 1% target and likely towards1.25% - 1.5% as we enter Fall.
This suggests plenty of room and support for the Rotation Trade to continue as investors remain quite UW and last week’s big up move reflected short covering rather than true buying.
TGIF!
TPW Investment Management Team