Let's go 1-0
Happy Friday,
Violent political protest spans the globe yet financial markets remain calm; ACWI up 3% for October, HK up 4.5% though Chile was down 7%. Is it a case of parallel universes, the power of cheap money and lots of it?
I struggle to understand how the political class does not see the huge opportunity to use cheap money to address social concerns of the young & the restless (Baby Boomers don't riot). Housing & jobs in HK, transport in Santiago etc. Post GFC the global political class has been MIA.
Speaking of Santiago the cancellation of the APEC Summit, far from stoking worries of no US - China trade deal, has boosted the likelihood of a deal as both sides reassure talks are on track.
Q3 US GDP #s show why Pres. Trump needs a deal, as the US consumer is the only bright light in a trend 2% growth picture. The collapse in business investment can be tied directly to the trade tiff and syncs up with US CEO confidence at GFC lows.
Nov 1st suggests it’s time to start thinking about 2020 and while a recession whiff can bring the duration bulls out in force, it's worth thinking about Reflation 2020 and the potential for another leg up in global risk assets led by non US markets, Value and Cyclicals ...ACWI remains slightly below its Jan 2018 high… markets have been marking time for 2 yrs.
Working on a new theme: Lower for Longer Global Growth = Higher for Longer Global Stocks...let me know what you think.
Hope no one threw up over those Grubhub #s this week - another nail in the throw $ at it PE space? Loved this line: food delivery may always be a low margin business - seriously?
At least in public portfolios you know what you own - given the size of the cash raises in PE land everyone has a slice of these winners - hand grenades left and right…
Finally a post Halloween fun fact: when S&P is up 15% or more by 10/31 it is up 100% of the time the next two months, averaging 5% return ( h/tip HSBC).
Oh and congrats to the Nats - the best thing to come out of DC in a long, long, long time…best comeback team EVER… love their slogan:
Let's go 1-0 today.
Jay & Jamie