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Happy Friday,

Market rollercoaster continues with global equity up for 2nd week in row while duration bullies take a step back as bonds finally reverse, down 1st week in 5.

Lots to muse on this weekend: for starters could the ECB and Fed disappoint? Both seem internally split & while the case for more easing seems strong, it’s likely to be a question of degree.

US data flow: CESI above zero, strong August Services PMI, jobs reinforce Fed insurance cuts vs full blown easing cycle.

US Manuf PMI breaking lower exemplifies a "US catch down", given Global Manuf PMI been declining for well over a year = closer to end than start.

Merkel in China: does she conclude Germany needs to stimulate or that China will do it for her? Stimulus is all the talk in Berlin but it seems reactive rather than proactive. PBOC reserve rate cut looks to produce more of an L shaped recovery rather than V.

China - US trade talks back on with language ("meaningful progress") suggesting room for good news here. Starting to sniff a deal BEFORE YE to benefit both sides, something very few (esp the “smart $”) are positioned for!

Brexit Smexit - did you catch Salvini’s Italian own goal? 3 months ago he was taking over Europe...Mega bond rally expands fiscal space & takes Italian crash risk off the table.

Start the week off right Monday with TPWIM on BTV’s Open show at 9!

Jay and Jamie