Mid Summer

Happy Friday,

Lots of action on our Big Four Risk Asset Areas: Easing Cycle, Growth Bottom, Trade Front and Earnings Outlook.

The Great Communicator, no, not Mueller, Draghi, disappointed yesterday: saying outlook worse & worse but no action and no agreement on action. J Powell must be fired up to get out there next week! We expect 25 bp cut.

On growth front EU data was poor but asset response was fine - suggests good Risk - Reward. Q2 US GDP @ 2.1%; US deceleration in train... sets up pivot point vs ROW?

US -China trade talks back on - does anyone care? Mkt reaction muted at best. Don't expect much here.

Earnings are the meat in the market sandwich; Q2 EPS BTE with 1/3 reporting positive top/bottom line growth y/y in US and EU... Good reminder that Manuf PMIs are not the end all and be all.

Great video (https://youtu.be/E_dCLagID7A) from this week's visit with Winston Capital Pres. Fabian Onetti; I cover our Lower For Longer Global Growth thesis and how we are allocating across Growth/Value and Def/Cyclicals.

Stay cool - Jamie is heading South and I am heading North - TPWIM covering the Eastern Seaboard this weekend!!

Jay and Jamie